It has been 25 days since the first day of the MLB Draft. There are 45 days left until teams must sign their picks, or wait until the 2009 draft for any compensation for letting a player go unsigned. It’s still pretty early in the game, as only eight first-round picks have signed, and just two in the top ten overall, #1 Tim Beckham and #6 Kyle Shipworth. But as short-season and rookie level seasons are underway, things are starting to get a bit antsy.
It’s a tough position to be in, for the Giants. For the first time in a decade, they took hitter with their top, first-round pick. And it’s not a stretch to call Buster Posey the most important draft pick the Giants have made in Sabean’s career. With all due respect the the steal that was Tim Lincecum, Posey becomes that position player that Giants fans have been pushing and waiting for. To lose him would not doom the Giants’ rebuilding effort, but it could further drop public opinion that has become jaded despite some positive things so far this season. And any goodwill that may be handed to incoming Managing General Manager Bill Neukom would be minimized.
Well, the Giants have never taken public opinion into account when making a move, and now is no time to start.
Buster Posey is a heck of a draft pick for the Giants. He’s an offensive-minded catcher, who’s only offensive minded because his defensive abilities are a lock. He’s not going to move away from the backstop position. He’s an excellent hitter for average, and has at least the potential to hit for pop. He would definitely be the offensive anchor for a rebuilding effort.
But he would not be unexpendable.
Posey’s incredible bonus demands cost him the #1 overall spot. For a couple of weeks before the draft, Posey was looking like the leading candidate to be drafted #1 overall, until the $12 million number got dropped. Put that in perspective. Last year’s #1 overall pick, David Price, got $5.6 million. The #5 overall pick Matt Wieters, also a catcher, got the biggest bonus in the first round: $6 million. Is Posey so much better than Wieters? Twice as better? Wieters’ pick was the second largest bonus in draft history. 2005 #1 overall pick Justin Upton got $6.1 million to mark the largest.
Over in the NFL, a work stoppage appears to be just about a certainty. And one key point that just got floated publicly was the ridiculous draft bonuses. Bay Area fans need to just look across the bay for the reasoning, where one of the NFL’s most ornery and stubborn owners in Al Davis stared down the supremely talented and supremely demanding JaMarcus Russell. And it was Davis who budged, and the result was a record contract for a rookie. It also cost Russell what was essentially his rookie season, costing him a year of development, and almost no time on the playing field. Yet he was one of Oakland’s highest paid players.
Is Posey worth this amount? I, for one, say no. At least Russell was in the NFL that year. Posey possibly wouldn’t make it until 2010 or 2011.
That doesn’t mean he can’t be talked down from the precipice. The Giants have a lot of bargaining power.
For one, Posey can’t be overly optimistic about what’ll happen to him if he returns to the 2009 draft pool. The 2009 draft is hard to plot, but Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley certainly would give a player like Posey a run for his money as a top draft prospect, and Posey would be a senior, a year older, and thus less valuable.
And that’s assuming that Posey’s senior season goes as well as his amazing junior year. Posey was one of college baseball’s best players, can he keep that up for another year? It’s certainly possible, maybe plausible, but definitely not likely. If Posey goes back to school, he’s more likely to end up like Luke Hochevar, the 2005 draftee who held out for a ridiculous amount, but got re-drafted and got a high but disappointing (to him) bonus in the mid-3 millions. And that doesn’t even talk about the loss of time and experience for him.
Secondly, there’s the fact that the Giants get fairly decent compensation if Posey doesn’t sign, the #6 overall pick in the 2009 draft (their 2008 position, +1). It’s not subject to free agent compensation (so it can’t be lost), so it’s almost like any other pick. The only difference is that the pick wouldn’t be protected if the Giants can’t sign that pick, so they’d have to draft a little safe. But a safe #6 pick is still nice.
Putting off a big pick to be a part of rebuilding a year is not a small thing. By the time the Giants pick in 2009, just about half the pre-free agency years of Cain and Lincecum would be gone. By the time the 2009 picks would likely make the majors (as well as the very young 2007 picks), the window that the Giants pitchers may allow might have passed, or closed significantly.
So, how do the Giants put the screws to Posey? Stand on a number until Posey gives?
Nope. They trade for Jeff Clement, if Posey goes unsigned through the end of July.
The Mariners are in shambles, and the team is under new leadership. But they have to deal with the shambles of the last G.M.’s tenure, not the least of which is the backup at catcher. Clement, the #2 overall pick in the 2005 draft, was obviously meant to be the future, but an untradable extension to Kenji Johjima has him locked through 2011. The team is pushing Clement right now, giving him the playing time at catcher and having Johjima bat at DH. Neither player is showing much, but Clement’s stint in Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .337/.457/.680, shows his potential.
The Mariners do not have many good assets to use in rebuilding, after dumping a lot of their pitching prospects for Erik Bedard. To rebuild quickly, they’ll need to use their assets. And they need a lot of pitching. The Giants could do that.
Debate the specifics of the trade, but let’s say Jonathan Sanchez, Alex Hinshaw and Henry Sosa for Clement gets done.
The implications for Posey are clear. The Giants are not only prepared to move on with other futures at catcher than Posey, but they actually are. It takes away Posey’s biggest negotiation point, which is the relative hole at the position in the Giants farm system. Heck, it even makes possible All-Star catcher Benjie Molina tradable in the near-term, where he might net another big prospect to help with rebuilding.
This does not close the Giants off to signing Posey. There’s no doubt that Posey is the superior catcher, in most terms. But Clement is also a better hitter than several current Giants hitters, including possible first base prospect John Bowker, where Clement could be moved to. Clement isn’t as valuable as a first baseman, but his value in undercutting Posey’s negotiating points would make up for that change.
And if the Giants don’t resign Posey after getting Clement, well, they’ve gotten a very good hitter for rebuilding while trading from a couple of strengths, and still will get a high draft pick very soon.
The fans may not like it in the short-term, but the move would make the Giants better, and give them more power in drafting and signing players, in the long-term.
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