First Round - #5 Overall
This pick is the easiest to look at. There’s not much variety available here, nor needs there be, and five names is casting a wider net than would be needed. But this pick is also the most important, as this player will hopefully become one of the franchise’s faces for years to come. And, to be honest, everyone (including Peter Magowan, on the record) wants that face to be a hitter.
1.) Pedro Alvarez - 3B - Vanderbilt
This is the dream pick. It’s also probably not going to happen. Don’t blame Sabean, this guy is just likely to be taken in the first four picks ahead of the Giants. He is a hitter with plate discipline, average and power (22 home runs as a freshman!). He was a member of Team USA over the summer for two seasons. He’s likely to stay at third base. And he has the intangibles of being a good teammate and a strong makeup. But there is some dreaming Giants fans can do. A broken hamate bone in his hand kept him out the first half of the season, and probably cost him the best chance of being #1 overall. (He did come back and play very well in the second half, however.) Also, he has one intangible of being a Scott Boras client. That would not make him slide many picks, but it would not take many. And if he does, the Giants have indicated that ownership will expand the draft budget as needed. All indications are already showing that he will not be #1 overall, so maybe it could happen that he’ll be available at #5. The biggest holdup might be Pittsburgh at #2, whose new ownership may be willing to pay to show a new direction, but they might also prefer to net the top tools player in the draft, high school shortstop Tim Beckham. But even if Alvarez slips out of the Top 2, that’s two more picks he’s not likely to be passed up by.
2.) Justin Smoak - 1B - South Carolina
Put the puns about his name aside, and this is the guy that many Giants fans seem to want. Smoak is a switch-hitter with premium power from both sides. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and should be able to maintain a good secondary on-base percentage. At first, he is one of the best defensive first basemen in the draft who also have significant offensive potential. And he has success with wood bats, hitting 11 home runs in the Cape Cod League after his freshman season (summer of 2006). He did, however, not produce to expectations with Team USA last summer. So what’s the problem? The big debate right now is, should the Giants make any consideration about drafting a first baseman with that OTHER future face of the franchise, Angel Villalona, now entrenched at first as well? The answer should be no, but if the Giants view Smoak and another player (like, oh, Gordon Beckham) as equal talents, then that may become a deciding factor. All indications do say that the Giants love Smoak, and have focused considerable attention on him. Otherwise, the only worry is that he won’t last until #5. If he’s there, there should be no regrets about going with Smoak, however, as he fills every need and will be the first draftee the Giants have made in a long time who will be loved the second his name is called. Not even Tim Lincecum, who received the knee-jerk “Oh, not another pitcher!” response can claim that. (People, came around, though.)
3.) Gordon Beckham - SS - Georgia
A lot of recent speculation has put the Giants as excited about Beckham, in addition to Smoak. That has been received cooly by the fans, who are not shy about wanting a traditional corner infielder with power. But Beckham is nothing to sneeze at. He doesn’t have the same buzz as Alvarez and Smoak, who were both high school stars. But he has improved as much as any college player. And he has power. He had a league-leading 9 home runs in the Cape Cod League last year, which is the premium wood-bat summer league, which is a heavily used indicator to know who can hit with wood and who just has aluminum power. He has gone on to have an impressive 22 home runs this year, while having an excellent average all season long. Despite some scouts who don’t like his unusual swing mechanics, most are coming around to say that he can hit. The other question is about whether or not Beckham will stay at shortstop. This is more about having rough hands, as most scouts indicate he has the range and arm to stay at short stop. He has improved every other aspect of his game, however, so there’s hope that he can learn that side of it. Also, if he moves, many scouts say he might move to second, but it’s not the only possibility. He might move to third, with the arm and range to play there. He wouldn’t have the plus-plus power some want there, but he would still be a very good bat there, and would fill a desperate need for high-level third basemen in the Giants system. Although many fans are cool on him, most scouts project him as more valuable and rank him higher than Smoak.
4.) Buster Posey - C - Florida State
Posey has risen as much as anyone this season, after batting .471 this season. He also is a converted shortstop who now plays the one more valuable defensive position, and he plays it well. With good batspeed and hand-eye coordination, his high average is no fluke. Now, Posey is being talked about legitimately to be the #1 overall pick, and is considered to be a ‘safe’ pick, but also one that few fans would be cool on. The problem some see with Posey is a possible lack of power in the pros. He’s shown great power in college, but has yet to really wow anyone with a wood bat. Some see him as being a 15-home run guy a season when he peaks, others think he’s a sub-10-home run guy a season as a pro. That has some people a little cool on him as a Top 5 pick, though they are certainly in the minority. Posey would likely face little competition in the Giants system, as the only prominent prospects at catcher the Giants have are Pablo Sandoval, whom some doubt will stay there long-term, and last year’s sandwich pick Jackson Williams, who is struggling mightily after the Giants made an adjustment in his swing this spring. However, Posey now appears to be as unlikely as anyone, even Alvarez and prep shortstop Tim Beckham, to last until #5, so these debates may be moot.
5.) Brian Matusz - LHP - San Diego
Sure, everyone wants a hitter, but to ignore the top pitcher in the draft would be foolish. Matusz is a safe, near sure-fire pick who would be a staff ace at his best on a lot of staffs. His fastball, at 90-93, is similar in many ways to Jonathan Sanchez’s. But he has a fully developed curveball which he has control of. He also has a very good changeup, which is widely praised by many draft-watching publications, and also has a slider with potential. This polished arsenal makes him a dangerous pitcher for opposing teams, and a candidate to be the fastest player in this draft to make the majors. The only concern is unusual mechanics, which some think could be an injury concern. The Giants, however, have extensive experience working with pitchers who use such mechanics, and have also been extensively successful with them. If Matusz falls down to #5 overall, the Giants will be hard-pressed to pass him up, as he is rated by many, including Baseball America as the #2 prospect in this draft. However, currently Matusz is the favored player to be picked by the Baltimore Orioles, who could see Matusz as the Erik Bedard replacement they need to rebuild around.
Who’d We Miss? - Tim Beckham is the toolsiest player in the draft, but he’s unlikely to last to #5. High school first baseman Eric Hosmer may be the most talented hitter among all the first basemen, but the Giants seem to be leaning towards a college hitter. Miami’s Yonder Alonso is the other top first baseman in the draft, but he’s just not on the same list as the others.
Sandwich Round - #37 Overall
The Giants won’t have a second round pick, but this will make up for it, behind 14 picks ahead of where their second round pick (lost to the Philadelphia Phillies for signing Aaron Rowand) would have been. Sandwich round picks are a bit riskier than the first round picks, but still can be a place for high-upside players. In 2006, the Giants picked up Emmanuel Burriss with the 33rd overall pick, and he is already in the majors (if a bit rushed). In 2007, Nick Noonan was taken with the 32nd overall pick while they got Jackson Williams with the 43rd. The levels of talent and excitement obviously vary, but there are some good players to get here.
1.) Jason Castro - C - Stanford
Castro may be a bit of a question mark to last until the 37th pick, but unless the Giants take Buster Posey in the first round, Castro would have to be an ideal target. After two rough seasons working as Stanford’s catcher and hitting, he was one of the best hitters in the Cape Cod league last summer but did not catch (he was on the same team as Posey). Castro went back to catching for the regular season and found a way to hit doing it. Baseball America has noted that in many years, Castro would be the top catcher in the draft, but this year, he’s third best (behind Posey and high schooler Kyle Skipworth). Chances are small he’ll make it to #37, but if he does, the positional need and local influence would make him an easy choice.
2.) Tyler Ladendorf - SS - Howard Junior College (TX)
The Giants know Ladendorf, and like him a lot. They know him, because they drafted him in the 34th round last season, but just couldn’t come to terms by the deadline. For once, they may have been right when scouting a position player, but may be kicking themselves for not signing him. The multi-tooled shortstop led the batting race with a ridiculous .542 in 2008. In 2007, when he hit just .425, he stole a nation-leading 65 bases in 65 attempts. But now, instead of just one home run, he has 16 on the season in 168 at-bats. He does have some shoulder issues thanks to a high school injury, but it’s a labrum issue that usually heals well. But Ladendorf would be yet another toolsy and very talented shortstop, and could be a target here even if the Giants take Gordon Beckham (although maybe not if they take Tim). And since some think he’s a true second-rounder, a slight overdraft (and the bonus to go with it) may make Ladendorf a Giant yet.
3.) Tyson Ross - RHP - California
The Giants may be looking hitting for good reason early, but they won’t ignore pitching at this pick. Ross is another local kid that the Giants couldn’t help to see. Ross has a legitimate low-90’s fastball and can push it to 95, but it can also drop to the upper 80’s at times. This is probably something that comes from a lack of good stride and short arm action. His best pitch is a slider that is slow and breaks hard. Some scouts don’t like him, thinking he can’t be ‘fixed’ and made a starter, and would limit him to relieving. The Giants are probably the one team with pitching pedigree to ‘fix’ Ross and make him a starter.
4.) Connor Gillaspie - 3B - Wichita State
Gillaspie is one of those guys who confounds scouting directors. Some are talking about him like he could be taken 15th overall. Some wouldn’t touch him before the second round. Gillaspie has the Cape Cod League pedigree the Giants love, as he won the batting and slugging titles this year with the wood. He also is a good athlete and a better base runner than some third basemen. And he has the ‘gamer’ intangibles, with a strong work ethic. However, his power comes more from doubles and triples than home runs, and there are some questions about his ability to stay at third base. If he is there at #37, which is a legitimate possibility, he could be an intriguing pick if the Giants don’t get Alvarez.
5.) Ross Seaton - RHP - Second Baptist HS (TX)
The Giants like their Texas high school pitchers, with both a hit (Matt Cain) and a miss (Craig Whitaker) in past years with high picks. And with two high school pitchers taken last year, they are definitely not averse to taking more. Seaton has bumped his value with an excellent spring, mostly out of a fastball that ramps up to 96. He doesn’t have the offspeed pitches yet, but his slider particularly shows promise. He does, however, have control, another thing the Giants covet out of their big, high school pitchers. Seaton will not last until the Giants next pick, as many believe the Astros will take him at #38 overall if he is still there.
Who’d We Miss? - Ike Davis, the 1B from ASU, stands out a lot because he has raw power and can play the outfield, but his history has a lot of injuries. Jemile Weeks, Miami’s 2B, is considered as athletic as Beckham and has tools, but has a lot of questions. Smoak’s teammate Resse Havens at shortstop is intriguing, but doesn’t have the athletic/speed profile the Giants love there. Wake Forest 1B Allan Dykstra has as much power as anyone expected to be available at #37, but has some holes and could be a defensive liability.
Third Round - #82 Overall
The Giants don’t get many chances to pick here, not having a third round pick in two of their last three drafts. They did pick up Clayton Tanner with the 89th overall pick in 2006, while in 2004, their third round pick was John Bowker (#100 overall). The Giants often look for their own style of players around this level, so don’t be surprised to see a west coast player here.
1.) Aaron Weatherford - RHP - Mississippi State
Weatherford has been working mostly as a reliever in college the last two years. As a closer, his low-90’s fastball mixed with an arsenal of a curveball and an unpredictable split-finger have made him a solid worker. Some see him as a reliever in the pros, especially thanks to a plague of injuries, but the Giants turned UCLA’s talented and oft-injured reliever Paul Oseguera into a starter, and one who has been successful and who has moved quickly. Don’t be surprised to see them try that with Weatherford, which would be a high-upside risk.
2.) Eric Thames - OF - Pepperdine
Thames suffered an injury, reportedly minor, late this year, which has hurt his draft status, and could make him a steal. He was batting .407 with 13 home runs when he went down. Thames is limited defensively to left field, but is not so limited people think of him as a DH only, but has a bat that makes him worthwhile. He’ll likely be a big swinging kind who will strikeout often but make pitchers pay for mistakes. Power at this round is a commodity that comes with flaws, but this may be worthwhile.
3.) Shane Peterson - 1B/OF - Long Beach State
The Giants have done well with Dirtbaggers, and this year could be no exception. Peterson has very good left-handed power, showing it despite playing in one of the most infamous pitching-friendly parks in college baseball. While he can be suspect on pitches on the hands, Peterson has excellent strike zone control, and power that can play both at first and in the outfield. One mark that may keep him from being here at #82 is the recent success of top Dirtbag players Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria.
4.) Logan Forsythe - 3B - Arkansas
Forsythe is another value pick coming after injuries, although he had a lot of them. His 2007 summer ended with a stress fracture, and in the fall, he had a hamstring injury, although that was attributed to having the former injury and being unable to work out as usual. Forsythe is a solid power hitter, and has versatility and athleticism to keep his value afloat. He should stick at third base, with only his offense being a possible problem with him staying there.
5.) Aaron Pribanic - RHP - Nebraska
Pribanic is considered a pitching project. He has a good mid-90’s fastball at times, and after redshirting, his arm is relatively raw but also fresh. He needs a lot of work on his breaking balls, and has some mechanics issues in his delivery, but his upside is very good and could be an excellent value pick to someone willing to work with him on his problems.
Fourth Round - #117 Overall
This is where things could get very, very difficult to predict. High schoolers without much chance to sign? Sure. Local players who did not show highly to most teams, but a few may want to overdraft? Absolutely. This is where practicality starts to show up on most draft boards, but not always.
1.) Kevin Eichhorn - RHP - Aptos HS (CA)
Mark Eichhorn was a big league submarine reliever. His son has a long ways to go. Committed to Santa Clara, he’ll probably take an over-slot bonus to sign at this level. But the Giants have done that before, and aren’t afraid to use their advantage as a local team to get a deal done. His fastball makes him a prospect, which can go from the high-80’s to the mid-90’s. He’s got a curveball, but it needs work. He’s due a little growing yet, and a good organization might help him grow into his pitches, instead of adjusting the pitches for his growth. Tanner was a surprise pick in 2006, which has worked so far and had a similar profile from the left-handed side. This pick would make a lot of sense here.
2.) Andrew Liebel - RHP - Long Beach State
The Giants do love Long Beach. Liebel is the kind of pitcher some organizations don’t care for. He’s small (5’11”), has low-90’s velocity with his fastball as a right hander, works with ‘pitchability,’ is ‘old’ (a college senior) and some might dismiss a little working in a pitching-friendly park. But Liebel has a good arsenal to work with, and has excellent control. He’s not going to overpower anyone, but not all starters have to, and with the polish and work ethic already in place, he could be a fast riser even in a system like the Giants.
3.) Evan Frederickson - LHP - San Francisco
Another school the Giants keep drafting pitchers from. Frederickson doesn’t have the fastball that Aaron Poreda (a USF first round pick in 2007) had, but Frederickson’s slider is better than any of Poreda’s offspeed stuff. A slurvy pitch in the low-80’s, it’s Frederickson’s out pitch. Some see a reliever in him, but the Giants could push him and see if he can develop any weapons to work against right-handers. Frederickson has shown an ability to work (he improved significantly at USF after a horrible career start at Virginia Tech). Some scouts love him, but he has a good chance to be available here.
4.) Mitch Harris - RHP - Navy
This is a risky pick (and a risky guy to name). Harris is a guy who should be a first round talent, but there’s a problem: he’s from the Naval Academy. The commitment to the Navy is five years, but some athletes get a shot at serving just two years. There is no arrangement yet made for Harris, who is a legitimate prospect. But the Giants are not averse to older prospects, and the ability to get hooks into Harris for the long term may make him an intriguing pick here.
5.) Harold Martinez - SS - Braddock HS (FL)
Martinez was talked about pre-season as a guy the Giants might consider along Beckham at #5 overall. This is why they play the season. Martinez has all the tools, especially some power and defense. Many think that he has a chance to be a third-baseman, and a very good one, long term. But Martinez just can’t yet put that into production in games. The Giants aren’t known for coaching young hitters, but they might try for a talent-steal here with martinez.
Fifth Round - #147 Overall
1.) Jake Jefferies - C - UC Davis
If any of the catchers listed in previous rounds aren’t drafted, Jefferies could be a target. Jefferies does not have many stand out tools, but he also does not have any serious red flags. He’s a good receiver and should stay behind the plate long term as a pro. As a hitter, he doesn’t have a lot of power, but he has good plate discipline and rarely struck out. He’s a good all-around athlete, and that makes him a great pick in this level of the draft.
2.) Trevor Holder - RHP - Georgia
Holder has the kind of pitching profile the Giants have taken advantage of. He doesn’t have the hardest fastball, nor the best offspeed stuff, but he works well with what he has, using the strike zone without going outside of it. He did very well in the Cape Cod League, and while he may be a starter when he makes the minors, he might be a reliever if he makes the majors. But with a name like Holder, he might just fit there.
3.) Bryan Shaw - RHP - Long Beach State
Now this pick would fit the Giants profile. Take a reliever from Long Beach (like Brian Anderson)? Yup. Take a hard thrower from Livermore (like Erick Threets)? Yup. Shaw doesn’t have the power of Livermore products Threets or Randy Johnson, but he has a mid-90’s fastball which matches with a slider that has a lot of potential. As a closer, he knows to work in the lower half of the zone, which is one less thing which he’ll need to learn. With a hard fastball and slider, he’s got the right kind of makeup to contend for a closer role, but should be legitimate contender to be a power setup man if he doesn’t end up finishing games. A power reliever would be a nice grab in the fifth round.
4.) Jarret Martin - LHP/1B - Centennial HS (CA)
Martin comes from Bakersfield, so he is certainly on the Giants’ radar. His fastball is right about at the 90 MPH level and should grow a bit more, and he has an excellent curveball. But he’s raw, and Baseball America notes that Centennial High School has no pitching coach, leaving him with mechanical issues. Despite a commitment to Cal State Fullerton and some potential as a hitter, the draw of an organization that would be able to help the pitching side of his game may be enough to make him sign, which is unusual this late in the draft.
5.) Nate Tenbrink - 3B - Kansas State
Tenbrink has a lot of tools people love. His lefthanded swing has power, while he has good speed for a third baseman and a very strong arm. But it hasn’t translated into production. He hit just .251 this season and had a .890 fielding percentage. Most scouts feel that he simply needs a team to work with him to improve his approach and get him to calm down in the field, where his energy is also the source of his throwing errors. Are the Giants the team to do that? Historically, no, but with some new faces in the minor league organization, that may change, and a toolsy player like Tenbrink would be a good test of that ability in this round.
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